Guerre en Ukraine : Après le naufrage du croiseur Moskva, l’usage de l’arme nucléaire tactique par la Russie est particulièrement redouté par la CIA

Le croiseur Moskva, navire amiral de la flotte russe a coulé en mer Noire ce jeudi. Un « coup dur » pour la Russie, qui fait craindre des représailles. L’usage de l’arme nucléaire tactique est particulièrement redouté. Ce qu’il faut savoir.

Alors que la télévision russe évoque déjà une «troisième guerre mondiale» suite au naufrage de son emblématique croiseur Moskva, une nouvelle escalade du conflit est redoutée par les acteurs internationaux. La menace d’une arme nucléaire tactique se fait sentir.

Une charge explosive moins lourde 

À la différence d’une arme nucléaire dite «stratégique, la tactique» possède une charge explosive moins lourde. Cela rend cette arme utilisable pour des frappes ciblées, par exemple sur un champ de bataille, à partir de chars, de batteries lance-missiles ou depuis des bâtiments de guerre navale. Elle est transportée par un vecteur ayant une portée inférieure à 5 500 kilomètres. Sa puissance peut varier de 1 à 100 kilotonnes. Par comparaison, la bombe lancée à Hiroshima était de 15 kilotonnes.

2 000 ogives nucléaires tactiques en Russie 

La Russie disposerait de 2 000 ogives nucléaires tactiques, selon les informations du JDD.  William Alberque, de l’International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) a assuré à l’AFP que  «le coût politique serait monstrueux. Il perdrait le peu de soutien qui lui reste. Les Indiens reculeraient, les Chinois aussi. Je ne pense pas que Poutine le fera». En plus du risque d’atteindre son propre territoire, Poutine pourrait donc perdre le soutien de son grand allié chinois, dont la doctrine est de ne jamais utiliser l’arme nucléaire en premier.

La crainte du «désespoir» de Poutine 

Vladimir Poutine, le 28 février 2022 au Kremlin lors d’une réunion économique

L’usage de cette arme avait déjà été évoqué au début du conflit. Dans le contexte actuel, le chef de la CIA William Burns, cité par l’AFP explique qu’il est possible que «le président Poutine et les dirigeants russes sombrent dans le désespoir, compte tenu des revers qu’ils ont subis jusqu’ici d’un point de vue militaire». Il nuance son propos en précisant qu’il n’a pas non plus «constaté de signes concrets qui pourraient aggraver ces inquiétudes». Une inquiétude reprise dès ce vendredi par Volodymyr Zelensky, qui a jugé que «le monde entier devrait être inquiet».

Mathieu Boulègue, du centre de réflexion britannique Chatham House, expliquait fin mars à l’AFP «qu’au niveau vertical, il y a un vrai risque. Ils ont désespérément besoin de remporter des victoires militaires pour les transformer en levier politique. L’arme chimique ne changerait pas la face de la guerre. Une arme tactique nucléaire qui raserait une ville ukrainienne, oui. C’est improbable mais pas impossible. Et là ce serait 70 ans de théorie de dissuasion nucléaire qui s’effondrent ».

L’objectif : démoraliser l’adversaire

La menace du nucléaire a en réalité souvent pour objectif de démoraliser l’ennemi, et d’utiliser «l’escalade pour désescalade » ». Pour Pavel Luzin, analyste du groupe de réflexion Riddle basé à Moscou, la Russie pourrait avoir recours à une arme nucléaire tactique «pour empêcher l’ennemi de continuer à se battre».

​​​​​​L’usage de l’arme nucléaire, qu’elle soit stratégique ou tactique, aurait dans tous les cas des conséquences catastrophiques, et serait une première depuis le 9 août 1945 et le bombardement sur Nagasaki.

Lucie Lefebvre sur ladepeche.fr

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    Thanks for the post.

  85. Hello! Quick question that’s entirely off topic.

    Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly?
    My weblog looks weird when viewing from my iphone. I’m trying to find
    a template or plugin that might be able to fix this problem.
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  86. Abanyaburayi ntibifuza kuba muri iyi si hari undi muntu ubaruta. Uburusiya n’Ubushinwa byamaze kubasumba. Ni yo mpamvu mu minsi mike igiye kuza abanyaburayi bagiye guteza intambara ya 3 y’isi, abantu bagapfa bagashira. Mwitegure ubukene, inzara, indwara, intambara, ubwicanyi, n’ubundi bugizi bwa nabi. Tugeze muri bya bihe by’indagu za Magayane. Abazi urufaransa musome iyi nkuru= https://numidia-liberum.blogspot.com/2022/04/plus-que-quelques-semaines-avant-le.html

    • ariko se, Baka? ibi uvula ku busumbane bw’Uburusiya,
      ubusinwa n’Uburayi, ubikura he? Ingero ushingira ho ni izihe? ese, Uburusiya ubushyira ku wuhe mugabane w’isi?
      Ushoboye kunsobanurira waba ukoze cyane….

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