Guerre en Ukraine: l’armée russe n’avance plus, elle s’enterre sur certains fronts dans des tranchées !

Depuis plusieurs jours, l’armée russe n’avance plus et subit même plusieurs contre-attaques des soldats ukrainiens qui entendent reprendre du terrain. Ce mercredi 23 mars à 15 heures, le président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky s’est exprimé devant l’Assemblée nationale et le Sénat français, il a qualifié des frappes de l’armée russe sur les villes de Marioupol et d’autres  comme des ruines de Verdun ». Entre temps, La Pologne a décidé ce mercredi d’expulser « 45 espions russes se faisant passer pour des diplomates », a annoncé le ministre polonais de l’Intérieur Mariusz Kaminski.

De guerre éclair à guerre des tranchées. Le 24 février dernier, date à laquelle Vladimir Poutine venait d’annoncer le début de l’invasion de l’Ukraine, le président de la fédération de Russie imaginait un conflit rapide et son contingent de près de 200.000 hommes facilement victorieux. Près d’un mois plus tard, force est de constater que les prédictions de Moscou se sont révélées fausses. Au fil des jours, l’armée du Kremlin s’est heurtée à la résistance de plus en plus forte de l’armée ukrainienne, au point qu’à date, la situation s’est enlisée sur la plupart des fronts engagés.

«Il y a un rééquilibrage relatif du rapport de force. Quantitativement, les Russes ont plus de moyens mais la dynamique a changé de camp. Les Russes s’enterrent sur certains fronts, dans des tranchées. On va vers une guerre longue, comme cela a été le cas après 2014 dans le Donbass », confirme à BFMTV.com le général Jérôme Pellistrandi, rédacteur en chef de la revue Défense Nationale.

Situation figée

Le président ukrainien au champs de bataille

Un statu quo noté sur le terrain par plusieurs responsables politiques ukrainiens. Mardi sur notre antenne, Olexandr Syenkevych, le maire de Mykolaïv, l’a martelé, « on ne va pas céder aux Russes ». « Aujourd’hui, nos forces sont concentrées pour défendre les positions et faire reculer l’occupant russe vers Kherson. Nous continuons de faire reculer les Russes vers la Crimée », a-t-il détaillé. «La situation est figée dans plusieurs villes. Les combats sont arrêtés car les Russes n’ont pas assez de munitions, de ressources« , confirme, toujours sur BFMTV, Alexeï Arestovich, conseiller militaire de Volodymyr Zelensky.

De manière générale, les soldats russes ont bien du mal à atteindre les centres des principales villes et continuent de se battre en périphérie de ces dernières. « La stratégie offensive a échoué et il va y avoir un gel des positions. Il y a un changement tactique russe avec des bombardements, de missiles ou d’artillerie », confirme Jérôme Pellistrandi. Une nouvelle stratégie déjà utilisée à Marioupol, où deux bombes surpuissantes ont été entendues mardi.

Contre-offensive sur terre et dans le ciel

Un rééquilibrage à même d’entraîner une contre-attaque ukrainienne? Oui, indique sur notre antenne le colonel Michel Goya, consultant défense de BFMTV. «Les attaques sont plus menées par les Ukrainiens que par les Russes. Il y a une contre-offensive dans l’ouest de Kiev, assez importante, qui bloque une part conséquente des forces russes. Vers Izum il y a quelques jours, ils ont lancé leur plus grosse attaque et détruit un régiment russe dans la région. Puis il y a plein de petites attaques de harcèlement sur les axes logistiques. Ils prennent l’initiative », détaille-t-il.

De plus, le recul de l’armée russe dans le ciel ukrainien est également net. Ce mercredi, Alexeï Arestovich annonçait que « le 100e avion russe a été abattu au-dessus de Marioupol hier. » « Rien que ces dernières 24 heures nous avons abattu six avions russes. Pendant quelques jours, ils n’ont pas survolé le territoire. En tout, nous avons abattu 104 avions et hélicoptères. Il y a 500 avions russes le long de la frontière ukrainienne. Seulement 350 sont prêts au combat. Il n’y avait que 160 équipages aguerris avec l’expérience de vol », analyse-t-il.

Un chiffre à prendre avec des pincettes, tempère le général Pellistrandi, pour qui la statistique de « 50 aéronefs abattus confirmés » est plus raisonnable, ce qui reste « un nombre conséquent. » Un chiffre confirmé par Oryx, une société néerlandaise qui liste les pertes matérielles russes depuis le début du conflit.

Les importantes pertes humaines russes

Aux premières heures du conflit, un peu moins de 200.000 soldats russes étaient dépêchés en territoire ukrainien. Depuis, il a été extrêmement compliqué d’obtenir un bilan clair des pertes de l’armée de Moscou. Ce dimanche, un média russe proche du Kremlin avait publié le chiffre de près de 10.000 morts avant que celui-ci ne soit retiré quelques instants plus tard. Le 2 mars, la Kremlin avait confirmé le chiffre de 498 morts. Pour le général Jérôme Pellistrandi, le chiffre publié par le média russe est plausible.

«9861 morts, ça semble assez cohérent avec les estimations des services occidentaux qui ont intérêt à avoir des chiffres les plus précis possibles dans cette bataille médiatique », confie-t-il. Selon lui, «une règle veut que pour obtenir le nombre de tués dans une armée, on prenne celui des véhicules détruits et qu’on le multiplie par quatre. » Or, selon Oryx, les Russes ont déjà perdu – au moins – 1700 véhicules, ce qui avec ce théorème porterait à 6800 le nombre de disparus.

Source : BFMTV

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