RDC : Balkanisation ou somalisation ?

Si, par le hasard de l’histoire, le Kivu s’était réveillé en Etat autonome le 30 juin 2020, jour d’apparition des drapeaux sécessionnistes à Bukavu, le nouvel Etat aurait été confronté à au moins trois défis immédiats : son armée, son territoire et l’identité de ses nationaux.

1/ L’armée du Kivu ? Si les FARDC et la MONUSCO se retirent, le Kivu se retrouve entre les mains d’une centaine de groupes armés nationaux et étrangers totalement irréconciliables. Les plus connus sont les FDLR, les Mai Mai Yakutumba, les RED Tabara, les Gumino, les NDC-R, les présumés ADF, l’APCLS,… sans oublier les M23 en embuscade. La crise sécuritaire deviendrait pire que dans le Sud-Soudan, du jour au lendemain.

2/ Le territoire du Kivu ? Quels sont les limites du territoire du Kivu ? La carte administrative actuelle fut décidée par le pouvoir de Kinshasa, et, comme pour les pays africains, elle coupe des tribus et des ethnies dont les territoires se retrouvent de part et d’autre des frontières. Des revendications identitaires éclateraient immédiatement, non seulement aux frontières des pays voisins, mais aussi aux frontières avec les autres « anciennes provinces » du Congo.

3/ Les nationaux du Kivu ? Qui est Kivucien et qui ne l’est pas ? Si on s’inspire de l’article 10 de la Constitution de la RDC, la nationalité des Kivuciens serait basée sur le double critère d’appartenance à un groupe ethnique et d’ancrage territorial. L’interminable question des « Banyarwanda » qui a tellement fait couler du sang et des larmes s’imposerait et pourrait d’ailleurs, elle seule, achever le rêve d’un Kivu eldorado. Le nouvel Etat deviendrait un abattoir plus sordide que tout ce qu’on connait jusque-là.

Ceux qui vraiment rêvent de faire éclater le Congo ont intérêt à méditer longuement leurs desseins. Il ne s’agit pas seulement du Kivu. Les autres régions traversées par des idées sécessionnistes sont autant concernées (Katanga, Kongo Central,…). Les sécessions katangaises et sud-kasaïenne sont des leçons que les Congolais n’ont pas eu le temps de méditer. Ces deux entités avaient sombré dans des conflits identitaires et de leadership opposant Lubakat au reste du Katanga (Tshombé contre Jason Sendwe) et Luba et Lulua dans le Kasaï.

Un peuple qui oublie son passé se condamne à le revivre, en pire.

Bonne journée les amis !

Boniface Musavuli Vh (facebook)

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