RDC: Le Rwanda envisage-t-il de mener une guerre terroriste d’usure contre l’armée ougandaise UPDF sur le sol congolais ?

Armée ougandaise UPDF au Congo

L’intervention musclée de l’armée ougandaise (UPDF) dans l’est du Congo, le mardi 30 novembre 2021, a marqué un tournant déterminant dans la « guerre froide » que se livrent l’Ouganda et le Rwanda depuis assez longtemps.

Les bombardements de l’armée ougandaise

La campagne de bombardements aériens et de tirs de l’artillerie au sol, menée de façon surprise dans la nuit du 30 novembre 2021, a infligé de lourdes pertes aux forces rwandaises (les RDF) qui opéraient de manière cachée dans les zones frontalières de Beni et de l’Ituri sous le masque du phénomène ADF. L’ampleur des pertes subies par les forces rwandaises est telle qu’on parle d’un climat de colère, de panique et de désolation dans les milieux du pouvoir de Paul Kagame, au Rwanda. Le Rwanda s’est plaint auprès du pouvoir de Kinshasa pour ne pas l’avoir prévenu de l’imminence des bombardements de l’armée ougandaise au cours desquels plusieurs officiers rwandais et des instructeurs de haut niveau ont été tués, faute d’avoir pu évacuer les bases ADF à temps. Dans les périmètres de Nobili, Kamango et de Semliki, la quasi-totalité des infrastructures ADF mises en place par le Rwanda ont été détruites.

Les survivants des bombardements et les blessés ont été récupérés par les militaires ougandais dont ils ont obtenu abondamment de renseignements au fil des interrogatoires. Les blessés sont soignés dans les hôpitaux sous contrôle des UPDF en Ouganda et continuent de fournir de précieux renseignements. Le groupe des ADF, mêlés aux FARDC, qui contrôlait l’axe Beni-Komanda a fui précipitamment dans la partie ouest du territoire de Beni vers les périmètres entre Mantumbi, Mangina et Mambasa, en province voisine de l’Ituri. Selon nos sources en Ouganda, le bombardement de ces ADF est devenu délicat depuis qu’ils semblent se mélanger avec les FARDC opérant dans cette partie du pays, en particulier dans les zones d’exploitation minière.

Colère et réaction du Rwanda

En réaction à ces bombardements de l’armée ougandaise et à l’implantation des UPDF dans la partie nord de la province du Nord-Kivu et sud de la province de l’Ituri, le Rwanda a entrepris plusieurs démarches militaires et diplomatiques pour tenter de rattraper ses acquis perdus. Sur le plan militaire, dès le lendemain des bombardements ougandais, Kagame a envoyé de nouvelles forces dans la ville de Goma qu’il a positionnées dans le territoire de Nyiragongo et les quartiers de Ndosho et Birere. Il a par la suite révisé le contrôle des itinéraires habituels arpentés par l’armée rwandaise entre le Rwanda et l’Ituri en passant par Goma, les territoires de Rutshuru, du Masisi et le sud-Lubero.

Le journal ougandais Command1post, proche des milieux militaires, affirme que le Rwanda prépare le déploiement de ses forces spéciales en masse dans le Nord-Kivu et l’Ituri pour mener des attaques terroristes contre l’armée ougandaise, des attaques que la propagande médiatique rwandaise va chaque fois s’empresser d’attribuer aux ADF pour discréditer la présence militaire ougandaise. Nos contacts au Rwanda parlent de « transformer le Grand Nord en poudrière ». Blessé dans son orgueil par la destruction de ses bases qu’il a mis du temps à consolider dans les maquis de Beni et en Ituri, Paul Kagame compte se venger des Ougandais en lançant des vagues d’attentats terroristes dans l’est du Congo. Le journal ougandais affirme que le Rwanda recrute des bandes des FDLR pro-Kagame pour les lancer dans ces attaques contre l’armée ougandaise.

Sur le plan diplomatique, le Rwanda a réussi à convaincre la MONUSCO  et le gouvernement de Kinshasa sur l’idée de la « mutualisation des forces » impliquant l’armée ougandaise (UPDF), les FARDC et les contingents de la MONUSCO. Kagame, qui dispose d’importants soutiens au sein de la MONUSCO et des FARDC, a ainsi les moyens d’orchestrer des coups tordus dans les zones d’implantation des UPDF en utilisant les brebis galeuses de la MONUSCO et des FARDC. Nos sources nous indiquent que les Ougandais, qui, au départ étaient opposés à cette mutualisation, l’ont acceptée pour ne pas faire passer la MONUSCO pour une force inutile. Mais il s’agit seulement de sauver les apparences. Officiellement, la coalition UPDF-FARDC-MONUSCO est commandée par le général congolais Camille Bombele, mais, en réalité, ce sont les officiers ougandais qui continuent de décider. Ils ont instruction de ne jamais faire confiance ni aux FARDC, infiltrés par l’armée rwandaise, ni à la MONUSCO qui orchestre des agendas cachés depuis ses 21 ans de présence au Congo.

L’histoire d’une « guerre froide » inavouable

Pour revenir à l’historique de la guerre secrète que se livrent l’Ouganda et le Rwanda derrière le phénomène ADF, il faut rappeler la rivalité entre les deux pays et l’influence que le Rwanda a prise au Congo en profitant des 18 ans de la présidence de Joseph Kabila. Pendant que l’Ouganda, qui avait retiré son armée du Congo en 2003, après les évènements de Kisangani, se consacrait à son développement, le Rwanda s’implantait militairement au Congo en infiltrant et en noyautant les services de sécurité de la RDC, son armée, sa police, et même sa diplomatie. En multipliant des guerres à répétition (CNDP, M23, ADF) suivies des mécanismes de brassages et de mixages, le Rwanda a réussi à inonder le Congo de partout par ses agents, et même à contrôler la quasi-totalité des groupes armés du Kivu et de l’Ituri.

Depuis 2013, le Rwanda renforce les effectifs des ADF en injectant massivement ses sujets chassés de la Tanzanie par le président Kikwete, les FDLR dont Kagame refuse le retour au Rwanda, les officiers inconscients et affairistes des FARDC, et de pauvres habitants de Beni kidnappés et embrigadés de force dans les rangs des ADF. Le chaos engendré par l’accumulation de ces masses de combattants dans les zones frontalière avec l’Ouganda a fini par menacer l’économie et même la sécurité de l’Ouganda. L’est du Congo est vital pour l’économie de l’Ouganda. De plus, les ADF, qui n’attaquaient jamais l’Ouganda, ont été accusés d’être derrière une série d’attentats au cours de l’année 2021, dont la tentative d’assassinat de l’ancien ministre ougandais de la Défense, Katumba Wamala, le 1erjuin 2021 en pleine capitale Kampala. La fille du général et son garde du corps avaient été tués au cours de l’attaque. Ç’en était trop : l’Ouganda ne pouvait pas rester indéfiniment sans réagir.

Vers un terrorisme d’Etat du Rwanda contre l’Ouganda sur le sol congolais ?

Sur le plan militaire, la technologie utilisée par l’armée ougandaise est apparue comme étant de loin en avance sur les capacités des FARDC et de l’armée rwandaise. On apprend que les avions de chasse et les drones de l’armée ougandaise sont capables de frapper, avec précision, des cibles sur des vastes rayons au-delà même de Kisangani à n’importe quel moment, de jour comme de nuit. Cette puissance de feu de l’armée ougandaise va probablement amener le Rwanda et ses alliés au sein des FARDC à éviter d’accumuler des combattants ennemis à un même endroit et à créer de nouvelles bases fixes comme celles qui ont été rasées en une seule nuit dans le périmètre de Nobili et de Semliki par l’aviation militaire ougandaise. Ils devraient s’en remettre à la stratégie de la guerre asymétrique, à savoir des attaques surprises par des assaillants opérant en solitaire ou par petits groupes sans base fixe localisable. Il s’agira de toute évidence d’une guerre terroriste d’usure dont il est difficile de savoir si les Ougandais sont vraiment préparés.

Wait and see…

Pascal Masumbuko

©Beni-Lubero Online

Source: benilubero.com

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